TOP News: China Details 2008 Bearing Exports

伊凡

* ]2 k* T6 I, h. t# Q6 |The government of China, General Administration of Customs, via the state-controlled Xinhua news, has released data covering its exports of all types of bearings, for December 2008 and the full year.

China's state-volunteered export data is notoriously inaccurate, tending to dramatically understate both the quantity and value. Although the specific numbers may be suspect, the data does offer insight to general trends in volume, growth, and pricing which have proven valuable in terms of general industry analysis.

Export data for December 2008 [/td]

count [td]218,770,000 bearings [/td]

total value USD [td]$155.1 million [/td]

average value USD [td]$0.709 [/td]

[/td]

Compared to November 2008 [/td]

count [td]197,430,000 bearings [/td]

total value USD [td]$153.5 million [/td]

average value USD [td]$0.777 [/td]

[/td]

Compared to October 2008 [/td]

count [td]258,040,000 bearings [/td]

total value USD [td]$176.6 million [/td]

average value USD [td]$0.684 [/td]

[/td]

Compared to September 2008 [/td]

count [td]280,630,000 bearings [/td]

total value USD [td]$195.3 million [/td]

average value USD [td]$0.695

) Z6 W. ?. L' x! I' IAs the export data indicates, the global economic slowdown is having a strong impact on bearing manufacturers in China, masked somewhat by seasonality in the raw numbers. There are also numerous reports that year-end data is subject to many government "adjustments" needed to show production met levels indicated by the central planners.

# {0 W6 |2 K# l, H, @Although there is some seasonality apparent in the bearing export data supplied, China's bearing exports are clearly dropping more sharply than in previous years.

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July [td]324 million bearings [/td]

August [td]312 million [/td]

September [td]281 million [/td]

October [td]258 million [/td]

November [td]197 million [/td]

December [td]219 million

4 p4 l( x+ o5 Q7 \" ]6 p6 ]# ZCalendar year 2008
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2008 exports [td]3.349 billion bearings [/td]

2007 exports [td]3.265 billion bearings [/td]

[td]  [/td]

2008 export value [td]$2.06 billion [/td]

2007 export value [td]$1.55 billion

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The most telling numbers, however, are eBearing.com's own rolling year-on-year figures for export growth. As 2008 wore on, we calculate China's bearing industry -- almost completely dependent upon exports -- suffered a dramatic slowdown which is reflected in the year-on-year growth rate from 2007:
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through June [td]15% [/td]

through July [td]14% [/td]

through August [td]13% [/td]

through September [td]11% [/td]

through October [td]10% [/td]

through November [td]5.5% [/td]

through December year-end [td]2.6%

踏步江山

大哥～～中文～～
5 i- I. o8 U, T9 \6 L; |中文～～

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幫幫翻譯一下：（方便大家觀賞）
' n# {' @1 `, j- Z* F, N首頁新聞： 2008年我國軸承出口的詳情
中共政府，海關(guān)總署，通過國家控制的新華社報道，已公布的數(shù)據(jù)涵蓋其出口各種類型的軸承，為2008年12月和全年。
4 \: o, ~2 s# g5 @4 y我國國有自愿出口數(shù)據(jù)是出了名的不準(zhǔn)確，往往大大低估的數(shù)量和價值。雖然具體數(shù)字可能是犯罪嫌疑人，并提供更多的數(shù)據(jù)的一般趨勢，數(shù)量，增長，價格已證明有價值的條款一般行業(yè)分析。
  r% e( f5 K8 m0 C* A下面的幾個表格的標(biāo)題是：（詳見附件）
出口數(shù)據(jù)2008年12月[ /運輸署]
相較于2008年11月[ /運輸署]
! X. i$ B0 i6 s* t$ z7 {& n相較于2008年10月[ /運輸署]
相較于2008年9月[ /運輸署]
' q+ q* }6 _" R! l4 S1 W+ r, m由于出口數(shù)據(jù)表明，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩是具有強(qiáng)大影響的軸承制造企業(yè)，有些是季節(jié)性蒙面的原始數(shù)字。還有許多報告說，今年年底的數(shù)據(jù)是受許多政府“調(diào)整”需要查看生產(chǎn)滿足各級指出，由中央規(guī)劃者。
雖然有一些明顯的季節(jié)性出口軸承提供的數(shù)據(jù)，我國的軸承出口明顯下降數(shù)額大大超過往年。
7 t9 G; `+ q2 b4 G2 W7月[運輸署]三萬二千四百點〇萬軸承[ /運輸署]
8月[運輸署]三萬一千二點零零零萬[ /運輸署]
9 O/ _- b8 |7 X9月[運輸署]二萬八千百點〇萬[ /運輸署]
% |% b4 q* }8 r8 T, v10月[運輸署]二萬五千八點〇 〇 〇萬[ /運輸署]
11月[運輸署]一萬九千七百點零零零萬[ /運輸署]
- W5 c( g5 j% X8 i( M& B. @12月[運輸署]二點一九〇億
! T4 v4 K$ g; k) L% Q7 _歷年2008年
2008年出口[運輸署]三十三點四九〇億軸承[ /運輸署]
2007年出口[運輸署]三十二萬六千五點〇萬軸承[ /運輸署]
2 D( [* @( _2 t; C. z6 ^" W; E   [的TD ] [ /運輸署]
2008年出口值[運輸署]二十〇萬六千點零萬美元[ /運輸署]
2007年出口值[運輸署]一十五萬五點零零萬美元
最有說服力的數(shù)字，然而， eBearing.com自身滾動去年同期的數(shù)字為出口增長。在2008年的推移，我們會計算我國軸承行業(yè)-幾乎完全依賴出口-遭受滑坡，這反映在去年同期的增長率從2007年：
6月[運輸署] 15 ％ [ /運輸署]
7月[運輸署] 14 ％ [ /運輸署]
9 [( j. k1 G5 ~* k到8月[運輸署] 13 ％ [ /運輸署]
到9月[運輸署] 11 ％ [ /運輸署]
3 D5 l2 [5 N( m0 ?到10月[運輸署] 10 ％ [ /運輸署]
1 e6 f( U3 Z0 _; p$ l% U, T, l到11月[運輸署] 5.5 ％ [ /運輸署]
2 |1 N, X. k. d! d' O* ~到12月，今年年底[運輸署] 2.6 ％

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